The Data Rich Open Doors
Kerry Geffert
Product Evangelist, Terra Dotta
In mid-November, the Institute of International Education released the latest Open Doors data to coincide with International Education Week. This year’s data came at the right time, providing positive data on the strides being made in international education at a time when the future may feel unclear. How exciting to realize that we have surpassed the million-student mark for incoming international students. And study abroad continues to grow, albeit not as fast as we might hope. If you have not yet begun to digest the volumes of data, start with the 2016 IIE Open Doors Fast Facts.
Because they are meant to be a quick overview, the Fast Facts mostly provide comparisons to the previous year’s data. Looking at longer periods such as five or ten years back provides for some interesting observations, particularly when we look at both percentages and the raw numbers behind those percentages. Following are just a few observations:
International Students
The percentage of international students as a part of the total U.S. enrollment continues to grow. Albeit still rather small (5.2% in 2015/16), the percentage has grown at a faster rate during the past four years as the total U.S. enrollment has begun to decline each year. This trend supports the idea that universities are looking increasingly to international enrollment to bolster their overall enrollments.
The top five sending countries have remained unchanged for at least the past five years. The order of these countries – China, India, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Canada – also remained unchanged until 2015/16 when Saudi Arabia surpassed South Korea due to a five-year decline in the number of South Korean students. It remains to be seen if Saudi Arabia returns to fourth place with the reduction in Saudi scholarship recipients.
The percentage of students from the top three sending countries has continued to grow over the past five years. The changes are small; however, they continue in an upward trend. Of course, the heavy weighting of enrollments from China and India – combined, almost half of the entire international population – likely plays a role in this growth. However, in contrast, the percentage of total enrollments from the fourth through tenth top sending countries has been in a downward trend during the same period, likely a combination of fluctuations among these sending countries, and increased recruitment in previously untapped areas of the world. Five of these seven sending countries saw decreases in enrollments in 2015/16 compared to 2014/15.
Changes in national economies, again particularly those of China (increased middle class with disposable income) and India (loosening of currency export restrictions), has had a significant impact on the number of undergraduate international students enrolling in the United States. The segment of students has continued to grow at a faster rate than the graduate-level students since 2011/12. During the same period the number of non-degree students grew, but has dropped in the last year, impacted by the reduction of scholarship programs for Saudi and Brazilian students. Competition for other English-speaking countries – countries with clear national agendas for international education – is likely impacting these numbers as well. Finally, the number of Optional Practical Training (OPT) is surging as the number of STEM and Business majors continues its faster growth, and particularly in the last year as the longer STEM OPT extension has gone into effect.
Patterns of funding sources used by international students appear to invite greater scrutiny during the past few years. It appears that the entire growth in the international student population from 2014/15 to 2015/16 is made up of students on personal or family funding. This would certainly fit with the changing economies of China and India, and the growth in undergraduate enrollments where personal funding is more common. Following a spike in US College/University support during 2014/15, the numerical tally dropped off to a level more consistent with growth during the period 2011-2014. However, this year, employment-based support grew dramatically almost paralleling the growth in OPT numbers. Reviewing private and government sponsorships, only Foreign Government/University numbers grew, keeping at least a 5-year trend of growth. In contrast, U.S. private sponsorship continues a 5-year decrease, dropping almost 47% since 2011/12. Foreign private and U.S. government sponsorship continue to fluctuate from one year to the next; however, both are at levels lower than in 2011/12.
Study Abroad
IIE’s Generation Study Abroad (GSA) initiative has a goal of doubling the number of students studying abroad by the end of the decade. In real terms, increasing from approximately 300,000 students in 2011/12 to 600,000 by 2020. As IIE indicated at the outset of GSA, doubling the numbers would require a 14.5% annual rate of growth, a lofty goal. With about 336,000 students participating in study abroad for both academic-credit and non-credit in 2014/15, the 14.5% annual growth is not being achieved. While the doubling goal appears out-of- reach, the achievements that have been attained already by GSA partners must not be dismissed. For more information on these successes, visit GSA’s Commitment Partners webpage.
Considerable effort has been made in diversifying the cohorts of students studying abroad. Efforts to send students in majors beyond the Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences have been quite successful. In the most recent year of data, both the STEM fields and Business & Management continued to grow as a percentage of all study abroad students. In contrast, other groupings of academic fields appear to be declining, except for Communications and Journalism (it should be noted that changes to classifications in 2013/14 have made further comparisons difficult).
As an aside, I wonder how the changes in study abroad students’ majors have impacted the coursework that students are taking while on study abroad, and by extension how students are achieving cross-cultural understanding or a cross-cultural perspective. Whereas I might have thought that students gained a broader cultural perspective through studying another language, or through arts and humanities courses, how is that perspective being achieved through coursework that may have more of a technical or business foundation? Are comparative studies being employed? Or are programs being designed to develop that cultural perspective outside of the academic content?
Another area where efforts to diversify the picture of American study abroad students have met with success is in race and ethnicity. Study abroad is still dominated by white students with 73% of 2014/15 students identifying as such. However, that percentage has been declining since 2004/05, and has increased at the smallest percentage (33% - 2004/05 vs 2014/15) of any of the tracked racial/ethnic groups.
In contrast, other groups have made significant progress. Respective growth as a percentage of all study abroad students does not paint a full picture since non-white students made up only 27% of the students in 2014/15, but this is up from 17% in 2004/05. Hispanic and Latino students now make up the second largest student group with about 27,600 students (out of 313,415). Perhaps more impressive is the 140% growth that has occurred since 2004/05. Similarly, African-American students studying abroad has grown by 143% since 2004/05 with 17,550 students. Asian/Pacific Islander and American Indian/Alaska Native students have grown in numbers, too, by 96% and 90% respectively. Diversity efforts have had an impact when one considers that 85,000 non-white students studied abroad in 2014/15 versus 35,000 in 2004/05 – an increase of 50,000 when the total number of study abroad students increased by 107,000. These achievements are to be celebrated, providing support for our continued efforts.
Unfortunately, the same celebration cannot occur for efforts to address the gender imbalance in study abroad. Since 2004/05, the ratio of women to men on study abroad has remained constant at roughly 2:1. This, despite gains made in sending more STEM and Business majors abroad, academic areas that have been traditionally male dominated. If we are to believe that more male STEM and Business students are study abroad, does this then mean that fewer males are studying abroad in the Arts, Social Sciences and Humanities?
Because many aspiring to enter the education abroad profession do so because of a study abroad experience, what impact does the gender imbalance have for our profession? As an anecdotal example, I recently presented at a NAFSA regional conference with three female colleagues about entering education abroad as a profession. Our attendees were 90% female.
Much already has been written on the ever-shortening study abroad experience. Short-term study abroad (defined as summer, or eight weeks or less) is closing in on 65% of the study abroad market, a 24% increase during the last five years when the total number of study abroad students increased by 14.4%. During the same period, mid-length (defined as one semester, or one or two quarters) grew by 3.2% and long-term (academic or calendar year) decreased by 26.7%.
Finally, changes in host countries for study abroad students offer intriguing insights into students’ shifting preferences. Asia, while growing as a destination during the past five year, decreased in 2014/15 from 2013/14, led by significant declines in China (peaked in 2011/12), India and Nepal. These decreases were countered by increased interest in South Korea (increased by 41% since 2010/11), and growing interest in Thailand and Cambodia as destinations.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, student interest has dropped by 2,619 students from 2013/14 (numbers peaked in 2012/13). Over half of this decrease is due to a significant drop in students choosing Ghana as a destination (down 1,564 students) and to lesser extents Kenya (down 388) and Senegal (down 182). Only South Africa saw a significant increase from 2013/14 (up 281), yet still off its peak of 5,337 students in 2012/13.
By contrast, Latin America and the Caribbean continues to grow in each of the past five years. The increase of 986 students in 2014/15 over 2013/14 occurred in an arena of significant changes in several countries. While Argentina, Brazil, Chile and the general Caribbean saw decreases of up to 13.7% (Argentina and the general Caribbean), other destinations achieved considerable increases, notably Colombia (up 50%), Costa Rica, the Bahamas, the Dominican Republic (up 26%) and Cuba (up almost 30%). As a sub-region, Mexico and Central America now host almost half of all students (45%) choosing Latin America and the Caribbean, while Cuba and the Dominican Republic led a 13.5% growth in the Caribbean; South America declined by 4.7% during the same one-year period.
Other areas of the world also have been affected by student interest. Oceania and the Middle East/Northern Africa host fewer students than they did in 2010/11, but increased modestly over 2012/14. Europe has observed steady growth over the last five years while North America fluctuates from one year to the next. In all of these regions, no single-country swings were observed to the extent of those already referenced.
In Conclusion
IIE’s Open Doors provides an annual opportunity to “geek-out” on numbers, playing with differences and percentages to elicit any possible cues to our work. The data are an important snapshot of our students coming to the United States and venturing out to other lands, and bear viewing in longer periods to observe trends. These trends reflect the changing nature of students and their interests, as well as changes in world politics and economies. It is challenging to keep the potential variables in perspective. At the same time, it is rewarding to view the impact of the work of devoted international education colleagues around the world.